Expected Value (EV) is the average outcome per wager over many repetitions. A positive EV means you expect to profit over time; negative EV means you expect to lose. On Duel Originals (0% house edge) with any rakeback, EV is always positive. At 20% rakeback, EV = +$0.20 per $1 wagered. At 50% rakeback, EV = +$0.50 per $1 wagered.
Expected Value is the long-run average outcome of a bet, calculated as the sum of all possible outcomes multiplied by their probabilities. A bet with EV = +$0.10 means that over thousands of repetitions, you average $0.10 profit per bet. EV is the fundamental metric for evaluating any gambling opportunity.
EV Formula
EV = (Probability of Win × Win Amount) − (Probability of Loss × Loss Amount)
For casino games: EV = (Game RTP − 1) + Rakeback Rate
For Duel Originals: EV = (1.00 − 1) + Rakeback Rate = +Rakeback Rate
EV Examples on Duel
| Scenario | Game RTP | Rakeback | EV per $100 | Annual EV ($10K/month) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Originals — Bronze VIP | 100% | 10% | +$10 | +$12,000 |
| Originals — Gold VIP | 100% | 20% | +$20 | +$24,000 |
| Originals — Platinum VIP | 100% | 30% | +$30 | +$36,000 |
| Originals — Elite VIP | 100% | 50% | +$50 | +$60,000 |
| Originals + Enhanced (+15%) | 100% | 35% | +$35 | +$42,000 |
| European Roulette — Gold VIP | 97.3% | 20% | +$17.30 | +$20,760 |
| Slots (5% HE) — Gold VIP | 95% | 20% | +$15 | +$18,000 |
| Slots (10% HE) — Gold VIP | 90% | 20% | +$10 | +$12,000 |
Interactive EV Calculator
Expected Value Calculator
Why EV Doesn't Guarantee Short-Term Results
Expected value is a long-run mathematical concept. Even with a highly positive EV, short-term results can be significantly negative due to variance.
| Scenario | Expected Outcome | Possible Range (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|
| 100 rounds | +$2,000 | -$800 to +$4,800 |
| 1,000 rounds | +$20,000 | +$14,000 to +$26,000 |
| 10,000 rounds | +$200,000 | +$190,000 to +$210,000 |
As the number of rounds increases, results converge toward the EV. After 10,000 rounds, the outcome is highly predictable. After 100 rounds, significant deviation is normal and expected.
While Duel Originals with rakeback create positive mathematical EV, gambling is not a reliable income strategy. Always gamble responsibly with money you can afford to lose. Responsible gambling →